Reading Tyler Cowen's post on Sarah Palin, I realize I may have been unclear: I'm not convinced that Sarah Palin wasn't a wise political choice. Given the universe of options McCain had, she may have been the best compromise. Unlike Tim Pawlenty or Mitt Romney or Rob Portman, she shakes up the race. For McCain, that was crucial. Last week's trend lines pointed towards a loss. Unlike a Joe Lieberman or Kay Bailey Hutchison, she excites the base, unabashedly and with no reservations. Given that McCain is already in trouble, I understand the thinking that suggests he needs to activate the evangelicals and social conservatives who comprised George W. Bush's steadiest core of support. She's a woman, she's young, she's a reformer, she's got a compelling personal story, she's arguably the Republican politician least associated with the Republican Party. You can see how this might work out. The only problem is that to get all those things, you needed to sacrifice experience. A more tested Republican wouldn't be a maverick. A sharper maverick wouldn't be a Republican. A reader e-mailed me explaining the choice this way: Obama plays poker, McCain plays craps. Poker relies on a steady understanding of the probabilities and the willingness to bet when you have a good hand. Craps requires the willingness to bet and bet big, even though you know the house is against you. My correspondent saw this as a weakness of McCain's. But fundamentally, McCain couldn't play poker with this election: His hand had been dealt, and it wasn't a not a good one. He had no choice but to play craps. Palin is a bet. Not the biggest bet -- that would've been Lieberman -- but a bet. Politically, it may prove inspired. But the bet is that campaigns exist in a realm almost entirely separate from governance. That no one will care that the 72-year-old with a history of cancer just picked a women who his own campaign admits will need to spend four years learning "at the feet of the master." That no one will notice that McCain has spent the last year begging the electorate not to play craps, arguing that this moment is too dangerous to place a big bet without knowing the odds. McCain based his campaign around the importance of poker, then turned around and decided to play craps. He may not have had a choice. But it's risky nonetheless.
