A good indicator of which campaign isn't winning, whether in polling or news cycles, is that they hold a conference call on "the state of the race" -- Obama pulled this when he was the underdog a few weeks ago, and now it's the McCain camp's turn. Today the campaign reported that it is pulling its financial resources out of Michigan, a key retreat for them that severely limits their winning options on the electoral map after a simply astounding week of polling for Obama -- so astounding that I can't imagine the numbers won't recede in the coming weeks.
But McCain political director Mike Duhaime and senior adviser Greg Strimple aren't worried, because they're aggressive -- in fact, everyone's aggressive. The word came up about 50 times in the call, used to describe everything from Obama's liberalism to President Bush! (Amateur psychologists, make of it what you will.) They also promised an aggressive last 30 days, which is no suprise as conventional wisdom is beginning to coalesce around the idea that the McCain camp needs to/will go negative to win.
But it wasn't a good call, as the press wasn't buying the spin. After one of the advisers (I couldn't really tell their voices apart so you'll have to bear with me) explained that Obama's campaign must be very worried that he isn't breaking 50 percent in any polls, one campaign reporter asked where the McCain camp was over 50, a question met by silence.
A little fact checking: One of the advisers claimed that the Democrats didn't have the votes to pass the bailout bill, which reveals Obama's inability to lead. False. They also claim to have 260 electoral votes locked up, which isn't reflected in any independent analysis of the state of the race.
The essential message of the call was that Obama's money put him over the top in a few states, but that when voters learn about Obama's real record, the McCain campaign expects the states -- especially traditionally Republican states like Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana where Obama has seen success -- to "snap back." But with 30 days left until the election, after months of campaign commercials and appearances, two conventions and a debate, I'm not sure there are too many people out there who aren't familiar with Obama. Of course, the two remaining presidential debates and tonight's Veepsperience could prove decisive, but I bet they'll likely reinforce the narrative developing so far. I'm off to the Granite State tonight, so I'll miss the debate, but look for crack analysis from the rest of the TAPPED team.
--Tim Fernholz
