Mitch Daniels, current Indiana governor and former budget director for George W. Bush, is not running for president:
Over the last year and a half, a large and diverse group of people have suggested to me an idea that I never otherwise would have considered, that I run for President. I've asked for time to think it over carefully, but these good people have been very patient and I owe them an answer.
The answer is that I will not be a candidate. What could have been a complicated decision was in the end very simple: on matters affecting us all, our family constitution gives a veto to the women's caucus, and there is no override provision. Simply put, I find myself caught between two duties. I love my country; I love my family more.
To borrow an observation from Jonathan Bernstein, it's hard to pinpoint the "real" reason for Daniels' decision not to run. In addition to personal concerns, everything from early polling to discussions with party leaders to the political environment itself plays a part in whether a candidate enters the race. And then there's the question of whether Daniels actually wanted it or whether he was a media-driven candidate, like Fred Thompson in 2008 or Wesley Clark in 2004.
In any case, with Daniels out, the race has taken a slightly more defined shape. Mitt Romney remains the front-runner, with Jon Huntsman as a long-shot competitor for moderate votes. Absent Michelle Bachmann or Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty is the conservative alternative to Romney. There is still space for Jeb Bush or Rick Perry if they decide to enter the race, but that looks unlikely, given their stated disinterest and the current state of the Republican field.
With that said, I wouldn't read this as de facto good news for President Obama. At this point in 1991, the Democratic field was equally lackluster, and the sitting president was a lot more popular. Even still, a poor economy doomed George H.W. Bush, and it could doom Obama as well. Put another way, while Pawlenty is boring and Romney is ridiculous, both are plausible alternatives in a world where growth is slow and unemployment is high.
