Commenter Umbrella Doc looks into the numbers on Elizabeth Edwards' breast cancer and comes back with some illuminating data:
Since we like studies here, I'm going to look inside the numbers a bit. I'm looking at a study from 2004, which is described briefly here.
Looking at women with recurrences from 1974-2000 - they find a median survival of 21 months with a 5 year survival rate of 22%. The risk factors we know about put her in the middle of this group. Bone recurrence - 27 months, 23% 5yrs. Size of initial tumor 21 months, 20% 5yrs. Stage of initial tumor 25 months, 24% 5yrs.
Of particular concern is the fact that her doc said there were "very small abnormalities" which could not be characterized, in her lungs. Spread to organs drops median survival to 15 months, 13% 5yrs.
But there is hope! The point of the paper is that survival has improved significantly over the years. Median survival was 15 months in 1979, 22 months in 1989, and 58 months in 2000, 5 year survival is 10% in 1979, 22 months in 1989, and 44% in 2000. So while it isn't a completely safe assumption to make, (since they don't break out the risk factor data by year), if her risk factors make her an "average" case, then we might be able to use the 58 month median survival as a reference point.
Additionally, the study reports an average increase in survival rates of one percent for each year elapsed. In other words, Edwards' chances would be about 7% better than if she were diagnosed in 2000, the last year the study tracked. Those increases may or may not be statistically significant, but they're in the data. Additionally, the study reports that "the researchers' calculations suggest that finding the primary cancers at an earlier stage may have had more effect on survival after recurrence than any other factor they could identify." By all accounts, Edwards' recurrence was found at an enormously early stage, if only because her chest X-ray was an accident of fate that uncovered her cancer before it even became symptomatic. All in all, hopeful stuff.
