North Korea said on Friday it was working on restarting its nuclear plant and dismissed the prospect of being removed from a U.S. terrorism blacklist in return for a disarmament deal. The North said it had begun work to rebuild the Soviet-era nuclear Yongbyon plant that makes bomb-grade plutonium that was being taken apart under a much-delayed disarmament-for-aid deal it reached with five regional powers, including Washington. “The DPRK (North Korea) neither wishes to be delisted as a ‘state sponsor of terrorism' nor expects such a thing to happen,” the North's official KCNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying.
Jeffrey Lewis had a post on this a couple of weeks ago; in his view, this essentially involves haggling over price, rather than a new-found North Korean commitment to its nuclear program. The United States was a bit slow on delisting North Korea as a state sponsor of terror (we were under pressure from Japan on this point, I believe) and wanted verification measures as an additional price for removal. The North Koreans refused, and now seem to be pressing the issue.
Does this mean that John Bolton is essentially right and that diplomacy was a mistake? Not thus far. At the very least, diplomacy has achieved roughly a two-year respite in North Korean plutonium production, which is no small benefit. That the North Koreans seem to be willing to back out of aspects of the deal in return for a higher price is certainly irritating, and I’d be tempted to call their bluff; they may be hoping for better terms from an Obama administration, and I think it would be a mistake for Obama to give away anything of consequence. The wild card, of course, is what may be a North Korean succession crisis. Kim Jong-Il appears at the very least to be seriously ill, and North Korea’s diplomatic efforts may represent posturing and competition between different leadership factions as much as genuine policy.
Via Drezner.
--Robert Farley
