Yesterday I stopped by a presentation given by Morley Winograd and Mike Hais, where they argued that mobilization is key to protecting the Democratic majorities in 2010. According to their survey, 53 percent of voters identify as Democratic -- the challenge is turning them out, as the above graph suggests. Their findings also suggest that voters agree with Democrats about key issues like the economy, education, financial reform, and especially health-care reform -- and even the role of government, with a majority approving of an activist state.
Why isn't this resulting in better numbers for the Democrats? I asked the panelists whether, in the face of 10 percent unemployment and limited growth, any message from the majority party would be credible with voters. Simon Rosenberg, whose organization NDN hosted the event, said Democrats are allowing Republicans to shift the debate to fiscal issues -- debt and deficit -- which are actually of secondary importance to most voters.
Democrats are not shifting the playing field to a more salient issue or challenging Republicans -- they mainly argue that Republicans are correct about deficits, but Democrats are (accurately) more credible budget cutters -- they're losing ground. Look at President Obama here, promising to out-hawk the deficit hawks, rather than giving voters a clear choice about policies going forward.
"If Democrats are talking about fiscal issues in the final months of this election, they're going to get their butts kicked," Rosenberg said, an argument he's expanded on in these posts.
-- Tim Fernholz
