To repeat: Presidential convention placement doesn't matter as far as eventual vote outcome is concerned. But it is noteworthy that Democrats are optimistic about their chances in North Carolina:
The selection of North Carolina also underscored the hope of Mr. Obama and his advisers that they have a better chance of organizing supporters — and finding new voters — in a conservative-leaning but demographically evolving Southern state than in a traditional battleground like Missouri. The advisers believe the advantages of North Carolina include a population that is 22 percent black, an influx of new residents because of research and banking jobs, and laws that allow last-minute voter registration.
North Carolina looks good, I suppose, but the rest of the South is largely off-limits to Democrats. After last year's serious losses, only 36 House Democrats hail from the states of the former Confederacy, and of those, only 16 are white. Virginia, which sent six Democrats to the House in the 111th Congress, now only has three, all of whom represent districts with significant black populations.
The picture is worse in the state legislatures. Democrats control both chambers of the statehouse in Arkansas and Mississippi, and one chamber in Louisiana, Kentucky, and Virginia. By and large -- with the exception of African Americans -- the Southern Democrat is virtually extinct. Which is why it's interesting that the Democratic Party sees opportunity below the Mason-Dixon Line. It might be delusion, or it might be a partial response to the reverse migration of African Americans to the South. As The Wall Street Journal reported last month, the Great Migration is slowly unwinding, with the South gaining three-quarters of the nation's black population growth.
Blacks have always been an important part of the Democratic Party in the South, and that will only continue as existing black enclaves become the locus of area party organizations, and black newcomers provide an additional base of support. This is more than a little ironic. From the beginning of the party system until relatively recently (in the 1930s), the Democratic Party was based in the South, explicitly anti-black. Now, the party has its strongholds in the North, and blacks are its life support in the South.
-- Jamelle Bouie
