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One reason I'm a shade less pessimistic about the Democrats' chances in this fall's midterm elections than most observers: They have some good convergence coming up between their policy agenda and their political goals that might help them eliminate some of the enthusiasm gap and put Republicans on the defensive. Three examples:
- Elizabeth Warren: As I noted in my story today, that Elizabeth Warren is joining the White House team is a good get for the progressive activists who campaigned for her to be the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, even if it wasn't the ideal choice for them. While Warren will certainly deliver the policy chops, she was also brought on to write blog posts like this and inspire tweets like this; expect her media profile to be very high. While it's wavered or suffered defeats on other parts of the financial-reform agenda, the Obama administration really has done yeoman's work on the CFPB, and this prominent appointment is a nice chance to take advantage of that.
- The DREAM Act.: Placed ever so carefully inside this year's Defense appropriations bill is the DREAM Act, which proposes a six-year path to citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants, which requires a college education or military service. Not only is this a fundamentally just cause -- children born to illegal immigrants shouldn't be punished for their parents decisions -- and was once a bipartisan bill (shame on erstwhile Republican co-sponsor Sen. Orrin Hatch), it also is an important priority of the Latino community and young progressive activists, two key sectors of the Democrats' 2008 supporters. If Democrats hold their ground, they'll have a good issue to rally their base.
- The Bush Tax Cuts: To put it simply: "The public steadfastly supports the president’s proposal to let tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans." How often does the public steadfastly support anything the administration has done?
Of course, all this depends on Democrats showing some spine and fighting for these three priorities rather than shrinking in the face of Republican criticism and obstruction. Still, there's a path for Democrats to gain some ground prior to the November elections, if they can muster the gumption to take it.
-- Tim Fernholz
