Many Republicans are nervous that the looming government shutdown will be politically damaging to them, just as shutdowns were for Republicans in 1995. But some see a glimmer of hope in Fox News. Because they now have that network at their disposal (it was formed in 1996), they argue, they'll be able to match Democrats in the propaganda battle and prevail. Jonathan Bernstein says not so fast: Fox speaks mainly to Republicans, who already know who's right and who's wrong, and has limited ability to shift broader public opinion. Not only that, "the network’s cheerleading efforts might mean that intensely conservative partisans will be even more likely to believe that their side is winning, whether that's true or not, which could mean trouble for Speaker of the House John Boehner."
Which is true, but there's one key element that will determine the role Fox plays: its effect on Democrats. Not rank-and-file Democrats, but Democrats in Washington, particularly in Congress and the White House.
There's an old finding in communication research called the "third-person effect," which says that people underestimate the degree to which they are affected by the media but overestimate the degree to which other people are affected by the media. It will be all too easy for Democrats to see the constant bleating on Fox News and convince themselves that it surely must be turning the country against them. And if they assume that, they could easily grow frightened and become willing to capitulate when it will actually be Republicans who are suffering the political damage.
What you'll be hearing during the shutdown if you turn to Fox News is that Democrats are vile, Republicans are heroic, and, critically, that pretty much everyone in America agrees with the Republicans. As Bernstein said, this will convince congressional Republicans, who are inclined to believe it anyway, that they should just hold on, even at a time when each day digs them further into a political hole. As long as Democrats don't buy into it too, they can prevail.
So what Democrats ought to do is simple: Shut it off. I mean that literally. If you're in a congressional office or in the White House and you've got three TVs, each tuned to one of the cable news channels, take the one tuned to Fox and change it to Animal Planet or something (oh, if only The Puppy Channel still existed). You won't miss anything, believe me. It'll be the best move you make all week.