There's an old joke that the only answer an economist can give to any question is "it depends." At the moment, the only answer that an Edwards staffer in New Hampshire can give is, "it depends on Iowa." Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can both make a credible case for independent strength in New Hampshire. Either could, in theory, survive their opponent's victory in Iowa and still win New Hamphire, though my hunch is that that's more true for Barack than Hillary. But for Edwards, there's no similar independent strength. What exists, rather, is an organization ready to catch momentum out of Iowa. He's got 80+ paid staffers on the ground, ads on the air, a mature field organization, and even a bit of momentum. The latest American Research Group poll gave him a six percent jump over a reading taken earlier in December. Similarly, yesterday's Franklin Pierce University poll (pdf) showed a seven point jump, to 19 percent, over his September reading, with an 86 percent favorable rating (the same as Obama's, and a bit above Hillary's). And his support appears to be coming from his identification with progressive issues. Asked to name the single reason they support their candidate, 71 percent of Edwards proponents name "position on issues," as opposed to 44 percent of Clinton's backers, and 34 percent of Obama's supporters.That's how the Edwards campaign sees it, too. Edward Vale, the Deputy New Hampshire press secretary, puts it clearly. "If we win in Iowa, then come here and win, we think that proves that an aggressive, populist campaign can win. And then if Edwards wins in the general, he comes in with a very specific mandate."But that'll come after. For now, neither poll puts Edwards in first, or even second. But both keep him in the game, and close enough that momentum out of Iowa could conceivably overwhelm the gap. And that's what the Edwards campaign is hoping for. For them, it all depends on Iowa. It all depends on tonight. IT ALL DEPENDS ON IOWA, AND THE ISSUES.
There's an old joke that the only answer an economist can give to any question is "it depends." At the moment, the only answer that an Edwards staffer in New Hampshire can give is, "it depends on Iowa." Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can both make a credible case for independent strength in New Hampshire. Either could, in theory, survive their opponent's victory in Iowa and still win New Hamphire, though my hunch is that that's more true for Barack than Hillary. But for Edwards, there's no similar independent strength. What exists, rather, is an organization ready to catch momentum out of Iowa. He's got 80+ paid staffers on the ground, ads on the air, a mature field organization, and even a bit of momentum. The latest American Research Group poll gave him a six percent jump over a reading taken earlier in December. Similarly, yesterday's Franklin Pierce University poll (pdf) showed a seven point jump, to 19 percent, over his September reading, with an 86 percent favorable rating (the same as Obama's, and a bit above Hillary's). And his support appears to be coming from his identification with progressive issues. Asked to name the single reason they support their candidate, 71 percent of Edwards proponents name "position on issues," as opposed to 44 percent of Clinton's backers, and 34 percent of Obama's supporters.That's how the Edwards campaign sees it, too. Edward Vale, the Deputy New Hampshire press secretary, puts it clearly. "If we win in Iowa, then come here and win, we think that proves that an aggressive, populist campaign can win. And then if Edwards wins in the general, he comes in with a very specific mandate."But that'll come after. For now, neither poll puts Edwards in first, or even second. But both keep him in the game, and close enough that momentum out of Iowa could conceivably overwhelm the gap. And that's what the Edwards campaign is hoping for. For them, it all depends on Iowa. It all depends on tonight. 
