One of the more consistent criticisms I've heard from CAP's Brian Katulis is that Barack Obama has failed to live up to his promise to not just end the Iraq War but "end the mindset that got us into the war in the first place." So I was somewhat disturbed to see this comment made by Robert Gates at his George Washington appearance yesterday, highlighted by Adam Rawnsley at the Danger Room:
Speaking alongside Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at a George Washington University forum moderated by CNN’s Christiane Amanpour and GWU professor Frank Sesno, Gates plead agnosticism as to whether al-Qaeda would move its headquarters from Pakistan to Afghanistan but said “what’s more important than that, in my view, is the message that it sends that empowers al Qaeda.”Assuming Gates wasn't saying this just to drive Michael Cohen nuts, there's a reason why "preventing al-Qaeda from being empowered" is not one of the metrics for measuring success in Afghanistan. As Cohen put it:The Afghanistan-Pakistan border area, Gates said, represents the “modern epicenter of jihad.” A place “where the Mujahedeen defeated the other superpower,” and in his estimation of the Taliban’s thinking, “they now have the opportunity to defeat a second superpower.”
Defining al-Qaeda as both an ideology and an organization, Gates said their ability to successfully “challenge not only the United States, but NATO — 42 nations and so on” on such a symbolically important battlefield would represent “a hugely empowering message” for an organization whose narrative has suffered much in the eight years since 9/11.
If NATO decides it is no longer in the alliance's vital interests to remain in Afghanistan or that the current mission is not realistic or achievable, this is practically irrelevant because al Qaeda will interpret this as a victory and become even more empowered - even though they have very little power and influence at this given moment.
Exactly. The reason denying al-Qaeda a propaganda victory is not in the metrics is because it doesn't have anything to do with the concrete goals we're looking to achieve there. Worrying about what terrorists think, as opposed to whether or not what the U.S. is doing is keeping the country safer, is not what we want to be doing.
UPDATE: It seems appropriate to note Gates' statement here that "we're not leaving Afghanistan."
-- A. Serwer
