So I may be one of the earliest-rising media folks here in Iowa, waking at 4:40 EST to do some interviews with CBC Radio in Canada. And this is the cover photo that greeted me from today's Des Moines Register. The banner headline read, simply, Now, You Decide.
The lead story by the Register's Thomas Beaumont suggests that there will be a surge of new and independent voters, the disproportionate share of them turning out to participate in the Democratic caucuses: If polls and turnout forecasts are accurate, Iowa independents would be following the lead set by their national peers in 2006.Nationwide, independents backed Democrats heavily in the watershed 2006 elections, in part out of a rejection of President Bush and a loud cry for change that has continued into the 2008 campaign, strategists in both parties agree.Recent polls have shown the percentage of Iowa independents planning to participate in the Democratic caucuses is far higher than those who say they will caucus for Republicans. Turnout for the Democrats is projected to be higher than Republicans, perhaps double.If true, this effect has two implications:1. The Democratic race is going to be more interesting; and2. The outcome of the Democratic race is going to be harder to predict.--Tom Schaller
