I've got a post up at Greg's place explaining that the Tunisia-inspired protests in Yemen pose a particularly thorny challenge for the Obama administration's democracy rhetoric, given that Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh lets the U.S. shoot as many missiles at al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula targets as the U.S. wants.
Steven Walt's initial assessment was that the uprising in Tunisia wouldn't spread given that the most recent example of widespread changes involved former Soviet satellites asserting themselves in the wake of the USSR's collapse. As far as explaining why it does seem to be spreading, I think Spencer Ackerman offers the most concise explanation: "The success of an improbable indiginous revolt can be contagious when the conditions undergirding it are widespread, and especially when it's understood not to be contaminated by foreign involvement or provocation." That last point is more important than I think people appreciate.
Obviously, it's too early to tell where all this upheaval is going to lead to, but one hopes that ultimately, it results in more political freedom and accountability in the region. As ever, the decisions made by security forces would seem to be a crucial factor.
