John Judis enumerates the various bad economic indicators for a pessimistic look at our near-term economic future, suggesting that this will put a cramp in Barack Obama's approval rating. But I think he leaves out a key point: expectations. Sure, we aren't likely to see growth in the near-term, but will that disapoint people? Probably not. Check out this CBS News poll from early May:
Basically, a majority of people expect the recession to last from one to two years; an expectation that the administration has been happy to encourage with its subdued messaging on the economy -- identifying "green shoots" and then noting that we have a long way to go before we see any real change. Judis thinks people are going to start evaluating Obama next fall. But unless things change dramatically in the next six months, it won't be economic issues that undermine his approval rating -- it will be other challenges, whether related to increasing concerns in Afghanistan, or the complex nexus of national security and civil liberties that has sucked up a lot of oxygen of late, or his Supreme Court nomination, or... well, you get the idea.
-- Tim Fernholz
