Up at Greg's place, I discuss the implications of a new poll showing that most Egyptians aren't all that excited about the Muslim Brotherhood, so the fears of an Islamist takeover are groundless -- a military dictatorship is a far more likely outcome. Coincidentally, my column today is an attempt to offer a basic understanding of the Brotherhood, why they're problematic and also why the fears surrounding them are overblown, particularly regarding alleged links to Islamist terrorism:
"They aren't even talking Islamic state anymore," Hamid says. "Their priority right now is having freedom to operate, freedom of movement, and if a secular government provides that, then that's precisely what the Brotherhood wants at this juncture." Their alliance with Mohammed ElBaradei seems to support this point.
"There's a broad realization [in the Brotherhood] that they're going to have to compromise on Israel when push comes to shove," Hamid says of speculation regarding a role the group might play in a future Egyptian government. "Democracy is messy. You're not going to have a democracy, a pro-American government, a pro-Israel government, liberals all at the same time. That's not how it works."
There are rumors floating around that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak may be stepping down. If that's true, it probably means that the military is going to be expected to shepherd a transition to democratic rule. Given the Egyptian military's role in facilitating the torture of political dissidents, there's a lot of reason to think that might not turn out well, but we really won't know the answer immediately.
