Via Kevin Drum comes yet more evidence that there's no open-and-shut case for Obama's electability. "The detailed results of the latest LA Times poll have now been posted," he writes, "and they show that Hillary is indeed the tougher candidate: she does at least as well as Obama against every leading Republican, and in a hypothetical matchup with McCain she wins by 4 points while Obama loses by a point." Of course, other polls show other things. The point, though, is that the evidence folks are using to prove Obama's electability is weak indeed. Favorability ratings have a very tenuous relationship to votes. Obama, with a +27 favorable rating, seems to do little better than Clinton, with a +4 favorable rating, in match-up polls, and often does somewhat worse. Liking someone is not the same as voting for them. Of course, I'll double down on the confusion and say these horserace polls, too, are meaningless. A campaign against McCain, or any other candidate, will be decided by a variety of factors, ranging from the state of the economy to the condition of Iraq to the specific argument that breaks out between the candidates. Obama may be better at highlighting Obama's age, but McCain could be better at exposing his inexperience. Clinton may be more skilled at neutralizing his experience, but McCain may exploit her polarizing reputation. McCain could make a major gaffe on the economy, or Bill Clinton could get embroiled in scandal, or there could be a terrorist attack, or... The point isn't that electability shouldn't enter the discussion: Just that it's 16-dimensional chess. You can't simply glance at some favorability numbers, or note Obama's apparent appeal to independents (but not his problems with downscale whites), and assume you've discovered an answer worthy of any significant degree of confidence. The best you can do, at the end of the day, is decide which candidate you like better and mix that with a judgment on which proves to be the toughest, most skilled, most appropriate-to-the-moment campaigner. Which is why it's good that this election is dragging out a bit. We're getting a chance to make those judgments, rather than being forced to assume that Iowa got them right.
