by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
These graphs, courtesy of Charles Franklin at Political Arithmetik, illustrate just how little regional realignment has occured over the past two years, and that the movement against the Republican party has been almost uniform across the country. The 2004 map has stayed more or less intact with some small changes likely dependent on the local economy (e.g. Bush/GOP approval is not as depressed in Washington state, but is more depressed in Ohio).
This means that it will be very, very hard to expand the offensive map in 2008 beyond Florida-Ohio-Iowa-New Mexico, without some intervening event, a political strategy, or a candidate that makes some region of the country newly competitive. And the options are limited. Having Barack Obama on the ticket might put Mississippi and South Carolina in play; having John Edwards on the ticket might put the Carolinas and Louisiana into play; Putting a Prarie or a Mountain West governor (e.g. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Brian Schweitzer of Montana) on the ticket might put some of the region into play; a strategy geared towards winning back the working-class white vote might put some of the South or into play, etc. But none of these are sure things, which means that tactical plays for a single state will most likely be limited to Ohio, Florida, and perhaps the Iowa-Missouri-Arkansas triumvirate.
