I don't think I did a very good job explaining my prediction for an unexpectedly large popular vote win for Obama yesterday, so let me take another crack at it. A fair number of voters do not exercise the franchise because it makes them feel civically virtuous. Rather, they are tactical voters. They vote because they want one side or the other to win. But the likelihood of a tactical voter making it to the polls changes depending on the competitiveness of their state. In Ohio, a tactical voter always votes, because her vote could always matter. In California, a tactical voter might vote, depending on mood and convenience and schedule, because it's vanishingly unlikely their vote will matter. But I don't know that many purely tactical voters this year. The folks who once fit that description are suddenly affirmational voters: They want to cast this vote for them. To be able to say they did. To be able to say they were part of this. Which makes me think that Obama's margins in populous blue states are going to be tremendous, as a substantial slice of the electorate that normally gets distracted doing other things makes finishing their ballot a personal priority. Indeed, I think it fairly likely that the electoral college is closer than many expect -- with Obama possibly losing Ohio -- even as the popular vote is much more decisive than the polls have been suggesting. All of which suggests its time for a predictions thread. So this is it. Predict the popular vote, the electoral college vote, the change in Senate seats, and the change in House seats. Whoever gets closest receives a subscription to The American Prospect. If you nail it exactly, you also get a book of my choice.
