There isn't actually much hard evidence for this from Roll Call's Steve Peoples:
Despite the pessimism, evidence on the ground suggests a second term for Obama is by no means a sure thing. The enthusiasm gap that plagued Democrats across the nation last November was on display in the Granite State last week. [...]
“I don't know how motivated the Democratic base is right now,” he said, adding that he attended the event with an eye toward becoming more involved. “I was hoping there'd be more people here.” The small crowd was virtually silent for much of the speech, shown via the White House website and projected on the wall. They did not watch either Republican response.
I don't know how motivated the Democratic base is either, but at the very least, core Democratic constituencies remain very supportive of the president. 62 percent of Americans aged 18-29 approve of Obama's performance, along with 90 percent of blacks, 63 percent of Latinos, 59 percent of postgraduate degree holders, 77 percent of liberals, and 84 percent of Democrats. In 2012, like almost every other presidential election year, those numbers will go up.
-- Jamelle Bouie
