It's the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, or as the Jews say, Erev Pennsylvania, and something should probably be said. So here's Dan Balz saying the conventional wisdom. And on the other end of the spectrum, here's Terry Samuel's arguing that Obama will win, a prediction I think is almost certainly wrong. And slightly more broadly, here's Jay Cost with a terrific piece on the lessons and import of the campaign. if you can read only one, read Cost. In all likelihood, what we're going to see is Clinton with with a margin of 5 or 10 points, which is plenty for her to keep going. Then we'll all start obsessing over North Carolina and Indiana, the latter of which is supposed to be a hard fought battleground even though the polls and the endorsements (Evan Bayh) and the demographics would seem to favor Hillary. There, again, neither candidate will score a knockout blow, and the race will drag on through the remaining primaries, before being ended by the superdelegates in June. That, basically, is the shape of the race. It could've ended earlier if Obama had scored a knockout blow in Ohio or Texas. But he didn't. It could end tonight if he wins Pennsylvania. But I doubt it. And I doubt he'll do it in Indiana. He's winning on points, but winning on points takes a really long time, and everyone ends up bloody and exhausted. For her part, Clinton is hoping Obama will implode, but now that he's weathered Wright and "Bittergate," that looks very, very unlikely.
