Young Matt Zeitlin on the shape of the Democratic race:
And assuming the rest of the vote is split between Edwards and Obama,one could win Iowa and the other is going to probable be second in abunch of states, both will stay in long enough for it to be too latefor a progressive, anti Hillary to emerge and successfully challenge her.
Where Matt sees Edwards and Obama blocking each other from the nomination, I see a two-stage process. In Iowa, where he's leading, Edwards has the first shot at dislodging Hillary. If he wins, and the resulting media exposure and incoming cash carries him through the early states (Kerry was losing 37-15 in New Hampshire on New Year's Day and saw that margin reverse after Iowa), he goes into February as the frontrunner. But if things don't go Kerrystyle and Edwards peters out, Obama has a chance to propel himself into February with a victory in heavily black South Carolina. This is a state where residual Edwards support post-Iowa could divide the white vote, launching Obama into Super Tuesday with a victory.
