EXCEPT WHEN YOU DON'T... I'm pretty unconvinced; not to dispute Garance' post title, but military organizations prep for any number of different scenarios that they don't actually execute. Given that the United States and Israel are the largest potential military threats to Syria and Iran, it's hardly surprising that they're "preparing" for war; indeed, the professional military officers in either country would be almost criminally negligent if they weren't. Such preparation does not, however, imply that war is imminent or even likely. While mobilization can increase tension and exacerbate security dilemma dynamics, the number of genuinely accidental wars is vanishingly small. Moreover, this is about the eighth time we've received word of an imminent attack on Iran; recall the attack that was supposed to happen in late October, just before the election? Finally, if there's any intelligence apparatus in the world that I trust less than that of the U.S., it's the Russian.
--Robert Farley
