In a sort of shadow prognostication industry, during election season, various statisticians and political scientists create models predicting the winner. Most of the time, these models come disturbingly close, casting doubt on the need for these "election" thingies at all. In 2004, they predicted a slight win for Bush. And in 2006, well:
Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a projection of the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Our model allows both a point forecast—our expectation of the seat division between Republicans and Democrats—and an estimate of the probability of partisan control. Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty.
Meanwhile, the InTrade betting odds are putting a retention of GOP House control at 33%. All the usual disclaimers apply, but things would have to go mighty awry for this election to slip through the left's fingers.
