The LA Times has a useful article examining the incredible power that will be wielded by the Senate's few Republican moderates. Arlen Specter, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, George Voinovich, and a handful of others will be in great demand, as their support could break filibusters and assure legislative progress. Voinovich and Specter will be facing reelection. It's also worth watching the Republican Party's more independent-minded legislators -- folks like Chuck Grassley and Robert Bennett might break on certain issues as they judge their legacies more important than their party. If Bennett can get a health care bill he likes, for instance, he'll vote for it. I'd also recommend Nick Beaudrot's comments on the difference between the Democratic coalition of 1993 and 2009. "In 1993," he says, "Democrats held 57 Senate seats, but that 57 included between seven and teen Southern Democrats who would today be significantly to the right of the Nelson/Bayh/Landrieu triumvirate of centrists. This bloc outnumbered the handful of Republican moderates (Chafee, Danforth, Durenberger, Kassebaum) that might be tempted to work with a Democratic President." Indeed. Democrats are likely to have a larger majority than they did in 1993 (59 rather than 57, assuming Franken wins), but the raw numbers understate the difference. Past Democratic presidents faced Democratic congressional majorities littered with Dixiecrats (and the Dixiecrats tended to be quite senior in the party, chairing committees and so forth). But the Dixiecrats have died out. Obama is entering office with a much more liberal and unified Democratic Party beneath him.
