This afternoon, Sir Richard Dalton, the former British ambassador to Iran (2002-2006), spoke at the New American Foundation. He made a few provocative statements on the Iranian unrest, alleging "the Islamic Republic of Iran is not unraveling." Why not? Civil society and military institutions, Dalton observed, have largely hedged their bets in the wake of the disputed election, waiting to see how strong the protest movement would become, and what Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's public stance would be. The problem is that these "wait and see" institutions are the same ones that could have provided key support to the protesters. Without their support, the reform movement has little chance of facing down the might of the regime, which we now know is standing firmly behind the election results. "The people who want a change … are not going to have the stomach for continuing the fight for very long," Dalton predicted.
What's more, the reformers are disorganized, Dalton said. In 1979, organized political parties joined together to mobilize support for overthrowing the shah. But what we're seeing today are "ad hoc coalitions," according to Dalton, which find it hard to agree on specific policy positions beyond contempt for the election.
It's not a hopeful analysis, but it may prove to be a hard-headed, realistic one. Notably, though, Dalton clearly stated that sanctions and further isolation are not the way to react to this crisis, and that Obama and the G8 must continue the course of united diplomacy, even as the true face of the anti-democratic Iranian regime emerges. When it comes to the nuclear issue, Iran is not "completely un-deterrable or completely self-interested," Dalton said. It is a nation whose institutions are concerned with their own survival, security, and place on the international stage.
--Dana Goldstein
