by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
There's an emerging idea that "free trade" is the first policy casualty of the 2006 elections. NAFTA-bashers Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Heath Shuler (D-NC) are held up as prototypes of this new style of Democrat. "Free trade" has long been an area where elite consensus and economic consensus has managed to keep public opinion at bay. But while "populists", whatever that means, have been winning elected office, elite consensus on free trade has been breaking down. Here's Robert Rubin's interview in The Nation a few months ago, where he openly worries that the benefits of globalization have not been distributed broadly enough. And Brad DeLong, while not repudiating free trade, is pondering why Mexico's growth hasn't increased as much as he would have anticipated.
Meanwhile, as DeLong points out, the breakdown of progress on free trade didn't start with the election of populist Democrati Senators; it started with George W. Bush. He's for "free trade" except for imports Vietnamese shellfish, or Chinese bras, or Mexican concrete, or European steel, or Canadian softwood lumber, or exporting beef to countries afraid of Mad Cow disease, or ... you get the idea. The Doha round of trade talks has languished. So let's not lay this all at the feet of Sherrod Brown & company. After all, Ted Kennedy of all people voted for NAFTA, so it's possible that we can get back on the free trade wagon at some point relatively soon, once we fix the issues of domestic wage growth.
