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I missed the fun of watching the House Republicans reward Barack Obama's stimulus concessions with exactly zero votes. Oh to be a fly on Rahm's wall when that tally was announced. They'd packed the bill with tax cuts and removed the contraception funding. And they got nothing. Not an even some moderates. Perfect Republican unity against a popular new president's first major agenda item amidst a gathering economic threat. Not only is there no honeymoon period, but there's no deference to the will of the voting majority. And the Republicans are, of course, right. They are not misreading their own political incentives. If stimulus passes and succeeds, Obama and the Democrats get the credit, no matter whether the Republicans voted for or against it. If it is a colossal failure, Republicans can only benefit if they stood united in opposition. A Republican comeback requires a bet on economic collapse. And the fact that they were able to force a smaller, less effective stimulus in return for votes that never materialized makes economic collapse that much more likely. Neat!Meanwhile, as Ryan Avent argues, Republicans look to be running a similar play in the Senate. They'll only support the bill if it has more tax cuts and less spending. If it is, in other words, less effective. And even then, they may well not support the bill. Again, Republicans do not misread their incentives. The best situation for them is a bill that does not work and that they did not vote for. They're making a play to get both. Avent continues:
Nobody wants to play chicken with the fate of the economy hanging in the balance, but it may be time to call the opposition’s bluff. An actual defeat for the stimulus would cause havoc on Wall Street that would make the market’s plunge in the wake of the bail-out’s initial defeat look pleasant. A scare like that might shatter GOP solidarity once and for all. The alternative, in any case, is an empowered GOP minority, that will kill or maim legislation for the rest of the Congressional term.One way or the other, the stimulus will pass. And you have to wonder if the Republicans haven't made a tactical mistake showing their unwillingness to legislate constructively so early. It's hard to imagine the stimulus vote being a major issue two years down the road. The state of the economy then, and not the policies passed now, will dominate the midterm elections. But Republicans just showed the Obama administration that legislative success requires running over them, not working with them. That wasn't Obama's initial belief, but it's hard to imagine that it's not what his administration thinks now. And that will substantially change the way they approach major legislation like health reform and cap-and-trade. They will create a strategy that expects Republican opposition rather than one that gives Republicans much in return for support.
