Since I argued yesterday against Jim Webb for VP, I suppose I ought to argue in favor of someone else. And the best choice I see is Bill Richardson.
If Richardson were running for the U.S. Senate seat in New Mexico, I wouldn't want him in the VP slot for the same reason as Webb -- to have a strong Dem voice in a strong Senate majority. But Richardson is pretty much a free agent at this point (unless he desires to fulfill the rest of his second term as governor), so it makes sense to look at what he would bring to an Obama ticket. The answer, it seems to me, is that Richardson could bring the Southwest with him, and the electoral votes of New Mexico, and possibly, Nevada. Winning both of these states is not critical for Obama to win the general election but he needs to win one of them (each are worth five electoral votes).
The above map, which describes a 278-260 Obama win, is based on the current poll averages available at fivethirtyeight.com. Basically, it show Obama winning the states Kerry won in 2004 plus Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Obama outpolls McCain consistently in Iowa, so I'm going put that in his win category for the time being. If Obama loses Colorado but wins the other three states, it's a 269-269 tie. But since there's no VP pick that could help him in Colorado, it only makes sense to see who could help him in the Southwest, where his current lead is thin.
Obviously, all this changes if Ohio or Florida suddenly comes into play. But that would be gaming a Hillary Clinton win, which wouldn't require the Southwest. As of today, the above map is how Obama wins. And unless that changes, Bill Richardson makes a lot of sense strictly from the point of view of electoral strategy.
--Mori Dinauer
