Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made clear that the United States Navy would not take steps to shoot down any North Korean ballistic missiles launched over the next week. North Korea is carrying out clear preparations for such a launch, under the argument that it is deploying a satellite. Japan, which also has sea-based ballistic missile defense capability, also appears unlikely to destroy the North Korean vehicle, unless the missile malfunctions and heads toward Japan. To back up naval capabilities, Patriot air defense batteries have been deployed on Okinawa and around Tokyo. Gates is dealing with this in an altogether sensible fashion. The North Korean missile launch is legally tricky, and a plausible argument could be developed that would provide cause for the US or Japan to shoot the missile down. However, simply because legal arguments can be marshaled doesn't mean that they should be. The test is fairly harmless in and of itself, and shooting down the missile would significantly heighten tensions with North Korea. Finally, tests can themselves have substantial political effects. If Japan or the US attempted to shoot down the North Korean missile and failed, embarrassment would ensue along with the increased tensions. In other missile defense news, Feng at Information Dissemination has a good post about evidence of development in China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile program. Instead of targeting a city, an ASBM targets an aircraft carrier. The main problems are accuracy, terminal guidance (the aircraft carrier can move five miles or so between the time when a ballistic missile is fired and when it reaches its target), and surveillance of the target area. According to recent reports, the Chinese may have solved all of these problems. Or maybe not -- military organizations have strong incentives to misrepresent their capabilities. --Robert Farley
