It's old news that even while voters overwhelmingly loathe Congress, they tend to think their Congressman is doing a pretty good job. The new NYT/CBS poll sustains that fine tradition of voter confusion. Only 25 percent of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, but a full 53 percent approve of the job their representative is doing. That said, 48 percent think it's time to give someone new a chance in their district, while only 39 percent want to re-elect. Encouraging stuff.
Here's what's more surprising: This poll has trend lines stretching back to the 80's, so it's easy to compare and contrast. Turns out that in 94, year of the Republican Revolution, 56 percent of voters thought their representative was doing a good job, and the disapproval number, now at 29 percent, was at a mere 17 percent. Even weirder, in 98, 64 percent approved of their congressman. So going by those numbers, Democrats should win some 60 or so seats in November.
All of which is to say, this question may not matter very much. The swings in approval appear very minor (from the low 50's to the low 60's), and they don't seem to correspond to actual electoral outcomes. Which probably makes sense. After all, if 90 percent of voters think their congressman is doing just peachy, but the remaining 10 percent are clustered in a few dozen districts, you've got a landslide on your hands. In midterm elections, it's not the number of the disaffected, but their geographical concentrations that matters.
