Over on Slate, Jon Dickerson looks at why Obama's not doing better in Iowa, and posits that in order to have a chance, he'll have to lock in the young, first-time caucus voters that account for a large portion of the enthusiastic crowd that turns out for his events. His on-site excitement factor is much higher than Clinton's, but will that motivate people to head to the caucuses?
"Why isn't he killing her?" asked a colleague after Obama's hour-long visit. It's the persistent question for his campaign. He wows the crowds but lags in the polls everywhere but Iowa. One answer may lie in a question an Obama supporter asked the crowd before the senator arrived. Warming up the room, Linda Langston, a local politician, asked how many of the people there had never attended a caucus. It seemed like nearly half the room raised their hands. At the Clinton events, where the average age is at least 10 years older, every person I interviewed afterward offered a list of the candidates they'd supported in the caucuses during previous elections. This is the big question for the Obama campaign, which needs to do well in Iowa to survive: Can he lock in voters after they leave his rallies?
While digging up some other information yesterday, I came across some exit polls from the 2004 primaries. In the Democratic caucus that year, 17 percent of caucus participants were in the 17-29 age range. Forty-five percent were first-time caucus-goers. Somewhat of an aside, but only 40 percent said they'd used the Internet to gather information about the candidates.
Garance and Ben Adler over at Politico have both looked at the effect of an early caucus on college voters, who would likely make up a large swath of the first-time caucus-goers in January. Will the early primaries keep young, first-timers away? Still unclear. But the numbers from '04 are a pretty good testament to their importance in determining the outcome of the Iowa caucuses. Obama's ability to lock them in -- or the failure to do so -- will be pivotal.
--Kate Sheppard
