The first thing to note about the new summary of a report on the "recidivism" of Gitmo detainees is that "recidivism" is an odd term, given that most of the detainees transferred from Gitmo haven't been convicted of crimes and that the term itself in this context is used to refer to people who the government merely suspects of engaging in "terrorist activity." Jake Tapper has the numbers:
As of October 1, 2010, the report stated, 598 detainees have been transferred by the Pentagon from Gitmo into the custody of other countries. “The Intelligence Community assesses that 81 (13.5 percent) are confirmed and 69 (11.5 percent) are suspected of reengaging in terrorist or insurgent activities after transfer. Of the 150 former GTMO detainees assessed as confirmed or suspected of reengaging in terrorist or insurgent activities, the Intelligence Community assesses that 13 are dead, 54 are in custody, and 83 remain at large.”
In terms of the detainees released by the Obama administration, according to the report "2 are confirmed and 3 are suspected of reengaging in terrorist or insurgent activities," which gives them about an 8 percent "recidivism" rate, if we're counting those merely "suspected" of returning to terrorist activity. Either way, the "recidivism" rate is much lower than the rate of recidivism for crime in the U.S., which is about 66 percent.
But of course, there are reasons to doubt the government's numbers. At the bottom, the report states:
For the purposes of this assessment, activities such as the following indicate involvement in terrorist or insurgent activities: planning terrorist operations, conducting a terrorist or insurgent attack against Coalition or host-nation forces or civilians, conducting a suicide bombing, financing terrorist operations, recruiting others for terrorist operations, arranging for movement of individuals involved in terrorist operations, etc. It does not include mere communications with individuals or organizations—including other former GTMO detainees—on issues not related to terrorist operations, such as reminiscing over shared experiences at GTMO, communicating with past terrorist associates about non-nefarious activities, writing anti-U.S. books or articles, or making anti-U.S. propaganda statements.
While there are plausible intelligence reasons for not releasing the names of former detainees suspected of engaging in terrorist activities, in the past, when names have been given, third-party evaluations of the government's numbers have shown that the recidivism rate is actually much lower, in part because the government has previously included detainees "writing anti-U.S. books or articles, or making anti-U.S. propaganda statements" on lists of "recidivists." But any time the government is asserting numbers in matters relating to Gitmo "recidivism," that can't be independently checked, there's reason to be skeptical.
I'm sure that some will say this makes it harder to close Gitmo, but the truth is that it's no less impossible than it was yesterday, and even a recidivism rate of zero would not have persuaded those petrified by Muslim Heat Vision of the wisdom of shutting Gitmo down.
