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There's been a lot of talk about the Huck lately, and why he's not getting the elite support from Christian Right leaders that an observer may expect. Some argue it's because he'll shatter the coalition with fiscal conservatives. Others say it's because he's too much of a longshot. But either way, Amy Sullivan's suggestion that this may redound to the detriment of the Christian Right's leadership is important:
The conflict has been brewing underneath the surface, but the results of the straw poll at Saturday's Values Voters Summit made it official: the real struggle in the 2008 Republican primaries will be not between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney or social conservatives and fiscal conservatives but between Christian Right leaders and the conservatives in the pews.Coming off a heady week of endorsements from heavyweights in the Christian Right world, including Bob Jones III and Don Wilton, former president of the South Carolina Southern Baptist Convention, Mitt Romney technically won the straw poll with 1,585 of the total 5,576 votes cast. But it was former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who lit up the crowd with a fiery sermon as the last candidate to address the gathering. He took second place, just 30 votes behind Romney. When organizers broke the votes down into those cast online and those of summit attendees, the results revealed a true thrashing. In the tally of those present at the summit, Huckabee swamped his opponents, capturing 50% of the vote. By contrast, Romney was the choice of only 10% of on-site values voters.The Christian Right, by virtue of its religious, rather than political, roots, would seem to have a nearly unique problem arguing for pragmatism over principle. And as Sullivan reports, Huckabee, with his knowledge of the Bible, is making the argument for principle very, very, forcefully. I assume that the movement's leadership would pull back before actually breaking with its believers, but given the incentives of the situation, my hunch is that if one prominent Christian leader gets loudly behind Huckabee, the pressure on the others to fall in line will be enormous. And if they back Huckabee and Giuliani wins, well, can they really support a candidate who captured the nomination over their principled objections? --Ezra Klein
