Conservative pundits have seized upon the latest Rasmussen poll, which found that the number of Americans who self-identify as Republicans increased by two points in December, to 34.2 percent, the highest percentage since January 2006. The number of self-identified Democrats fell to 36.3, down a point from the previous month. The poll report suggests that the numbers are evidence that Americans are unhappy with the performance of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and other Democratic leaders, and that "public confidence in the War on Terror" has increased. Michelle Malkin also wagers it's because the public lost confidence in Democratic leadership in 2007. And Ed Morrissey posits that it's because voters think the Democratic presidential candidates are "inexperienced." They both think the poll results are evidence of the coming GOP rebound in 2008.
But the numbers are far more likely to be evidence of two things: general lack of public knowledge about how Congress works (i.e., the Dems aren't getting much accomplished because their Republican counterparts keep thwarting progress), and an increase in the number of individuals registering as Republicans so they can participate in the primaries. Most states require you to be a registered member of a party to take part in the primary, and a lot of them had deadlines in December. The drop in the number of voters who identify as independents was also significant, bringing it under 30 percent for the first time since June 2006 -- likely because these voters wanted a say in the primary process. And of course, folks could also have changed parties to participate in the opposition's primary. But evidence of a 2008 GOP rebound? Not so much.
--Kate Sheppard
