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Predictions of Muqtada al-Sadr's imminent demise are to conservative warbloggers what power ballads were to hair metal bands. For some reason, they all seemed to think they needed to write one at some time, and none of them have aged particularly well. (Except for "Sweet Child O' Mine.")Now Michael Totten sings "Every Rose Has Its Thorn":
"The New York Times reported last week that many Shias in Baghdad, including some tribal sheikhs, are now turning against the Mahdi Army and working with the Americans to evict them. Sadr’s base is collapsing from right underneath him, and it’s a direct result of the successful assault on radical Sunnis by General Petraeus’s surge forces and the Mahdi Army itself.The Mahdi Army picked up substantial local support thanks to its defense of Shias from Sunni insurgents and death squads. Neither the American soldiers nor the Iraqi security forces were able to secure the streets of the neighborhoods, so Sadr’s militia was called on for the job. Many portions of Baghdad have since been purged of Sunni extremists, partly due to the notorious sectarian “cleansing” and population transfers. The Mahdi Army is a victim of its own success, in a way: it has outlived its perceived usefulness and has degenerated into an ideology-free gang of murderous street thugs who do not want to let go of power. A militia need not be as deranged as al Qaeda to wear out its welcome, even in Baghdad."I commented last week on that NY Times article, which I found bizarre and misleading. (Here's a longer piece I wrote last July on Muqtada and his place in the Shia scene. And some comments on Michael Totten's past assertions about the Mahdi Army and other groups.)Remember that, in the wake of the Karbala violence in late August, Muqtada declared a six-month cease-fire. Part of the point of this was basically take a head count, to identify those groups committed to his movement and ideology, to identify rogue elements operating under his Mahdi Army banner, and disavow them. This is something that he has done repeatedly over the last few years as he has increasingly focused his efforts on consolidating political power, increasing his services network, and solidifying his social base.
