Jay Cost's post explaining the trouble in measuring the actual impact of the GOP's much-vaunted voter mobilization scheme is an important one. Their GOTV advantages -- microtargeting, the 72-strategy, etc -- are being sold as a secret, even insurmountable weapon. But there's precious little data supporting that. To be sure, Bush's largest vote increases in 2004 came in Democratic areas, which certainly speaks to the power of microtargeting. But Alan Abramovitz argues that Democrats did just as well, if not better. And, in any case, Democrats aren't going to be blindsided by the same tricks again. Indeed, just six years ago, the Donkeys has the unstoppable GOTV advantage, and it was the GOP playing catch-up.
My suspicion? If the right's real GOP gains come in grabbing marginally sympathetic voters in unlikely places, they may find this year that those voters aren't quite so sympathetic. GOTV works to combat laziness, not hostility. And for now, all polls show the right's worry isn't that the electorate will remain apathetic, but that it won't.
