Spencer takes a look at five sub-cabinet positions that will exercise important influence on the Obama administration's foreign policy. From the assistant secretary of defense for special operations, low-intensity conflict and interdependent capabilities to the director for the Middle East on the National Security Council, these are the people who will have great behind-the-scenes influences on foreign policy decision making. Consider the position of ambassador to Iraq, the on-the-ground manager for the political process that will underlie the president-elect's plan to withdraw from Iraq:
[T]here isn't a stable national or sectarian consensus about the composition of the Iraqi government. Crucial -- even existential -- questions remain about how much power should be concentrated in Baghdad; whether and how the Shiite-led government could absorb tens of thousands of the mostly-Sunni militiamen known as the Sons of Iraq, and who will govern large areas in northern Iraq claimed by both Arabs and Kurds. If that isn't enough, the so-called Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the U.S. and Iraqi governments demands that the U.S. military withdraw from cities and large towns by mid-2009 and gives the Iraqi government wide latitude over U.S. military operations.
All of which means that whomever succeeds Amb. Ryan Crocker at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad will have a task unlike any of his or her predecessors. The next ambassador has to “assess the situation accurately to let withdrawal proceed as expeditiously as possible without causing more problems than it solves,” said Daniel Serwer, a former State Dept. official who is now a scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Thanks to the SOFA, the U.S.’s strategic mission in Iraq has been recast from victory to extrication. Managing withdrawal in all its dimensions -- coordination with the military, with the Iraqi government, with the region and with the White House -- has to be job No. 1.
“There are so many different directions this person need be superb in,” Serwer said. “Handling the military, assessing the situation in Iraq and developing good rapport with the Iraqis, see[ing] around the next corner if things are going off the rails. It's a tremendous challenge.”
That's especially true if the Obama administration tries to broker a pan-sectarian compact for a post-U.S. Iraq. If that's the case, the next ambassador might look like an imperial viceroy — even as the U.S. exits the country.
Go read the whole thing.
-- Tim Fernholz
P.S. Daniel Serwer? Where have I heard that last name before ...
