After Arkansas's Lt. Gov. Bill Halter had an unexpectedly strong showing in Tuesday's Senate Democratic primary, he's probably carrying the momentum into the June 8 runoff. None of the polls beforehand predicted such a close race, and it seems some undecideds broke for him, and the third candidate, D.C. Morrison pulled about double what he was expected to. Where Morrison voters will go, if they vote at all in the runoff, is hard to tell.
Some of the voters I spoke to in Arkansas who supported Halter were simply tired of Lincoln and believed in his message of change. The national press will describe the Halter challenge, as they have been, as an exhibition of the anti-incumbent mood around the country, and some of that is true. But the biggest factors are, as always, local. From FiveThirtyEight:
Halter endeared himself to national progressives and to unions with his vocal support of the public option, giving him money, momentum and media attention. But to Arkansasans, he was a relatively familiar face (as the sitting Lieutenant Governor) who ran a relatively non-ideological campaign, railing against corruption, bailouts, and wishy-washiness, as challengers of all political persuasions are doing. Halter came out against cap-and-trade, on the other hand, and tried his best to avoid taking a position on contentious social issues.
I'd also add one thing that's really concrete: Halter championed a statewide lottery that will pay for high school graduates with a 2.5 grade-point average and a 19 on the ACT (which is about the baseline score it takes to get to college). The Democratic establishment didn't like it, and he took it to referendum.
It's not just that the lottery enabled many students to go to college who otherwise wouldn't have, it's that the policy is being implemented right now -- this year's high school graduates are applying and being approved. This is a state in which a little more than 60 percent of high school graduates go to college and in which only about 40 percent of public college attendees graduate in six years or fewer, so the lottery's a big deal. So while outside liberal groups are helping to flood money into his campaign, it's the local issues, as always, that make a big difference.
-- Monica Potts
