Spencer Ackerman thinks Faisal Shahzad's ineptness is evidence that extremist groups are losing:
But maybe TTP doesn't understand the concepts involved. Or maybe TTP doesn't have the caliber of disciplined recruit who understands the concepts involved; is willing to give up his life or his freedom halfway around the world to pull off an attack; or is capable of successful implementation. It's too early to draw responsible conclusions. But from Shahzad to Abdulmutallab to Zazi, the C-list operative is given the A-team job, and that’s starting to say something about current al-Qaeda-and-allied capabilities.
I think Ackerman's probably right that it says something about the ability of al-Qaeda and their allies that guys like Shahzad and Abdulmutallab are the best they've been able to do since 9/11 in terms of attacking the United States. But the Bruce Hoffman thesis, that these operations represent a change in strategy toward small-bore attacks meant to overwhelm the American intelligence-gathering apparatus, seems plausible to me, in part because it would reflect a shift in strategy to match their diminished capacity.
-- A. Serwer
