Not a whole ton to pick through in the exit polls. Clinton won voters over 40, Obama won voters under 40. There were just more of the former. Similarly, Clinton won women, Obama won men, There were just more of the former. John Judis's take, by contrast, seems a bit needlessly dire. A 9 point loss for Obama wasn't some cosmic drubbing. It was actually a substantial closing of the margin in a state where Obama was hit by the Jeremiah Wright videos and "Bittergate", and where Clinton started with a 20-point lead and the endorsement of the popular and hard-campaigning governor. This Pollster.com tracker chart tells the story:
One could just as easily spin these results into a decisive problem for Clinton: In a state where Obama faced brutally inhospitable demographics and weathered two major scandals in the course of six weeks, she saw her lead cut by more than half, rather than expanded by a third. If she couldn't knock him out here, where, and in what circumstances, can she knock him out?Moreover, the implication of Judis's piece is that these voters don't simply prefer Clinton. Rather, they're anti-Obama. But that seems odd. This is a Democratic primary, in which various Democratic groups are voting much as their predictive characteristics -- their demographics -- would suggest. When it ends, those groups will probably vote as their even more predictive characteristic -- partisan affiliation -- implies. Which is to say, those groups will probable vote for the candidate who wants to secure their health care and stop cutting taxes on the rich and stop pumping money into the Iraq War.
One could just as easily spin these results into a decisive problem for Clinton: In a state where Obama faced brutally inhospitable demographics and weathered two major scandals in the course of six weeks, she saw her lead cut by more than half, rather than expanded by a third. If she couldn't knock him out here, where, and in what circumstances, can she knock him out?Moreover, the implication of Judis's piece is that these voters don't simply prefer Clinton. Rather, they're anti-Obama. But that seems odd. This is a Democratic primary, in which various Democratic groups are voting much as their predictive characteristics -- their demographics -- would suggest. When it ends, those groups will probably vote as their even more predictive characteristic -- partisan affiliation -- implies. Which is to say, those groups will probable vote for the candidate who wants to secure their health care and stop cutting taxes on the rich and stop pumping money into the Iraq War. 
