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Ezra and Adam touch on some of the anxieties percolating on the left about the Obama campaign: They're not attacking enough, the Clintons are too distracting, the GOP is going to spend the entire time going negative at the convention, and we're seeing today that the press is really willing to let John McCain blatantly distort sensible statements made by Obama. A lot of these issues are real, but a lot of others are part of the pernicious "news cycle" trend, where a few peoples' intuition somehow becomes conventional wisdom. I've tried to take a big picture view, and to my mind there is still no cause for Democrats to panic -- though they should be a little concerned. A few reasons why:
- Polling. Yes, Obama is tied with McCain in some averages, but he's also up in most individual polls. Mike Crowley points out he still is leading in these polls, especially in key states, even if he has slipped over the summer. Nate Silver also notes that we shouldn't expect a convention bounce to begin until tomorrow.
- David Plouffe. Ambinder reports that Plouffe remains confident -- admittedly, he's paid to do so -- but his reasoning is sound, and his focus on key states is reminiscent of the primary campaign's focus on delegates. Remember the criticism of the Obama campaign then? Plouffe notes that "Obama is underperforming only among working class whites over 70 and pointed to a poll showing that Obama is over performing John Kerry with working class white voters under 50" and that Montana, Virginia and Colorado all look good.
- Clintons. Hillary's speech was solid, and it will hopefully move more Clinton voters into the Obama fold. Bill's speech tonight promises to be more of the same, and Noam Scheiber notes the intelligence of giving each one a night -- Bill is going to be feeling a lot better about supporting Obama now. They should both realize that Hillary hasn't yet done enough to escape the blame of a potential Obama loss.
- Biden. For all the attention over the weekend, tonight is Biden's real introduction. If he nails his speech -- and more importantly, nails McCain -- not only will that be a good psychological boost for worried lefties but also a good indicator that in the weeks to come the campaign will get on the offensive, especially on economic issues.
- Obama. He's a closer. His speech Thursday will be huge, and I don't think there's any way he can live up to the expectations setting that has gotten increasingly out of control (explain your policy without explaining your policy!). But he will deliver a good speech that will continue the convention mission of introducing Obama to voters as a positive, trustworthy figure. He had best go after John McCain as well. Whether Obama can seize the anger of white-working class voters without being seen as too angry, as Harold Meyerson asks, is a different story.
- Field. Watching the convention last night, another liberal writer responded to this argument by saying that "Field is what people point at while they're losing -- the election isn't decided in caucuses." Maybe. But if things are getting tight, and it looks like they are, a solid field operation that brings in two or three percentage points is what it takes to win.
--Tim Fernholz
