The invaluable Anthony Shadid has an article on the effects Hezbollah's actions are having on the internal politics of Lebanon. A close read raises the possibility that Hezbollah's actions were a calculated attempt to force Israel to respond to them as if they were the state of Lebanon, rather than a party within Lebanon. As the thinking may go, this would rally the country to their side, and the illusion would rapidly transform into truth. Other factions in the government, of course, are noticing the power play, and have begun speaking out against Hezbollah's decision to subvert the integrity and autonomy of the state.
In part, this is the problem: It's just not clear what Hezbollah's actions represent. An attempt by Iran to flex its muscles? An independent grab for power inside Lebanon? A provocation by Syria? Some other combination? And without knowing Hezbollah's endgame, it's a bit hard for the international community, not to mention Israel, to know how to respond.
Update: Also, this interview with the one American group conducting diplomacy with Hezbollah is a must-read. According to them, much of this has been accidental (or at least unplanned), from the original kidnapping to the missile hitting Haifa. It's never clear how much to believe, but it may prove to be the case that we've been watching a tragicomedy of errors, though one whose season finale might be World War III.
