Sometimes it's hard to remember how many orange alerts there have been. Washington, D.C., in particular seems to go up and down in alert level with all the rapidity and drama of a rapid-cycling manic-depressive. One week we're the defensive and hostile center of the universe, ringed with anti-aircraft missiles and full of cement bulwarks, suspicious of strangers at our doors; the next we're the nation's ebullient and friendly capital, inviting thousands over for a Coke on the mall and a casual weekend stroll beneath fragrant cherry blossoms.
When I first came to this city there was a little plaque on the Pennsylvania Ave. side of the White House that read “Self-Guided Tours Are Free.” It seemed to me then a perfect encapsulation of the very essence of America. After all, are not each of our lives, at core, little more than self-guided tours? And if being American means anything, it means just that: the danger and exhilaration of being as free as we're each capable of being. Things were different back then, with self-guided tours and neighbors playing street hockey until 2 a.m. on fenced-off patch of Pennsylvania Ave. in front of the White House. When someone scored a goal, the Secret Service guards would flip the headlights on their cars to celebrate the victory.
Those little moments of federal friendliness are now recognizable for what they were: the last vestiges of a vanishing world. Today, federal D.C. is being busily transformed into our very own Green Zone, a cordon sanitaire of concrete stretched around our monuments to classical ideals. Men and women with guns instruct us each that the way is now prescribed.
There have been six Code Orange alerts, including the present one. Looking back at why each alert was called and disbanded, as you can in the excerpts below, a picture of U.S. intelligence capabilities and Department of Homeland Security thinking begins to emerge. Each alert appears to have coupled a worrisomely high level of vague background chatter with at least one unique other thing -- be it the launch of the Iraq War, the anniversary of Sept. 11, or newly acquired intelligence about a potential looming threat. Some of the intelligence has later been disproved, and some was of unclear significance even at the time. What is clear is that those who expect an orange alert to be launched only in the event of the discovery of an active plot may be mistaking the threat level needed to issue a Code Orange with what would be, in fact, a Code Red. Implicit within the orange seems to be a high level of uncertainty and confusion.
The alerts:
ALERT NO. 1: SEPTEMBER 10-SEPTEMBER 24, 2002, a. k. a. “The 9-11 Anniversary Worry Weeks.”
THE THREAT: CNN.com, September 11, 2002: The U.S. government raised its threat alert status Tuesday to its second highest level -- code orange -- after receiving what officials called "an abundance of credible intelligence" indicating terrorists were planning attacks to coincide with the September 11 anniversary….
"The threats that we have heard recently remind us of the pattern of threats we heard prior to September 11," President Bush said at the Afghanistan Embassy in Washington.
"We have no specific threat to America, but we're taking everything seriously," he said.
THE RESOLUTION: CNN.com, September 24, 2002: Citing disruptions in the al Qaeda terrorist network, the Bush administration Tuesday scaled back the government's terrorist threat assessment to "elevated" from its previous level of "high." …
The decision, according to Attorney General John Ashcroft and Homefront Security Adviser Tom Ridge, was "based on a review of intelligence and an assessment of threats by the intelligence community, as well as the passing of the anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks and the disruption of potential terrorist operations in the United States and abroad.
"Contributing to this decision were the recent arrests of six men in suburban Buffalo who are alleged to have provided material support to al Qaeda," they said. "In addition, senior al Qaeda operatives have been captured in Pakistan and other al Qaeda members have been apprehended in Singapore and Yemen. These actions have disrupted terrorist operations by neutralizing certain senior al Qaeda leadership and removing other terrorist planners and operatives."
ALERT NO. 2: FEBRUARY 7-FEBRUARY 27, 2003, a. k. a. “The Great Duct Tape and Plastic Sheeting Panic of Ought-Three.”
THE THREAT: February 7, 2003: CNN.com Attorney General John Ashcroft said reports indicated that so-called "soft" targets -- those more lightly guarded, such as apartments, hotels, sports arenas and amusement parks -- are at an increased risk. …
Sources said recent information suggests that al Qaeda might be further along than previously thought in procuring elements to make a so-called "dirty bomb" -- a non-nuclear device that would spew radiation upon exploding….
Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said the information "suggested an attack on the United States and the United States' interests -- both within the United States and outside -- is imminent."…
"We do recommend that individuals and families in the days ahead take some time to prepare for emergency," Ridge said.
THE RESOLUTION: ABCNews.com, February 13, 2003: A key piece of the information leading to recent terror alerts was fabricated, according to two senior law enforcement officials in Washington and New York.
The officials said that a claim made by a captured al Qaeda member that Washington, New York or Florida would be hit by a "dirty bomb" sometime this week had proven to be a product of his imagination.
The Washington Post, February 15, 2003:
"I'd like to remind people that the information we have to work with is very vague," Ridge said. "There are occasions you learn it was not as accurate or was inaccurate."
The Washington Post, February 25, 2003: The government lowered the terrorism threat index by one notch yesterday, saying the risk of an attack has abated somewhat, but warned Americans that al Qaeda is still poised to strike U.S. targets at home and abroad. …
Despite the shift from orange to yellow alert, the CIA believes the chance of an attack remains fairly high, a senior administration official said yesterday. Another official familiar with the situation said he believes the color change has more to do with "the need to be able to boost it back up to orange when the war comes, because otherwise at that point you would have to go to red."
ALERT NO. 3: MARCH 17-APRIL 16, 2003, a. k. a. “Here We Go Again: The Iraq War Starts.”
THE THREAT: Statement by Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, March 17, 2003: The Intelligence Community believes that terrorists will attempt multiple attacks against U.S. and Coalition targets worldwide in the event of a U.S led military campaign against Saddam Hussein.
THE RESOLUTION: The Washington Post, April 17, 2003: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge lowered the nation's terrorist alert threat level yesterday from orange or "high risk" to yellow or "elevated risk," and government officials said one reason for the action was that hostilities in Iraq are coming to a close….
ALERT NO. 4: MAY 20-MAY 30, 2003, a. k. a. “Al Qaeda Activity Abroad Means Worries At Home.”
THE THREAT: The Washington Post, May 21, 2003: "The U.S. intelligence community believes that al Qaeda has entered an operational period worldwide, and this may include attacks in the United States," Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said in a statement yesterday. Ridge made the decision to elevate the threat level after consulting with President Bush and other top administration officials….
He said possible means of attack include the suicide bombings seen in Saudi Arabia and Morocco, as well as "small arms-equipped assault teams and large vehicle-borne explosive devices." ...
"It's hard to know where this might happen," a senior U.S. official said. "Something is up somewhere."
THE RESOLUTION: CBSNews.com, May 30, 2003: "The intelligence community has concluded the number of indicators and warnings that led to raising the threat level have decreased, and the heightened vulnerability associated with the Memorial Day holiday has passed," said Brian Roehrkasse, spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security….
"It's not so much what has happened as what's has not happened," says CBS News Correspondent Jim Stewart. "I don't sense that their apprehension has dropped, but certainly their sense that anything imminent is about to happen is dropping."
ALERT NO. 5: DECEMBER 21, 2003-JANUARY 9, 2004, a. k. a. “Les Francais? Non!”
THE THREAT: CNN, December 22, 2003: In announcing the heightened terror alert, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge warned Sunday of possible terrorist strikes more devastating than the al Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001.
He said the move was the result of a "substantial increase" in the volume of intelligence pointing to "near-term attacks that could either rival or exceed what we experienced on September 11."
The Washington Post, January 7, 2004: On the same day that Ridge raised the national threat level to orange … Homeland Security also ordered the dispatch of scores of Energy Department radiation experts to cities planning large public events…. Starting on Dec. 22, the teams crisscrossed those cities, taking measurements 24 hours a day.
THE RESOLUTION: ABCNews.com, January 7, 2004: The FBI has concluded the information that led to a nationwide hunt for five men suspected of infiltrating the United States on Christmas Eve was fabricated by the informant, and the agency called off the alert sparked by the information today. …
The alert was part of information that led officials to shut down New York's harbor to all ships except emergency vessels from New Year's Eve through New Year's Day, and to ban vehicles from roads alongside the harbor.
The Washington Post, January 11, 2004: FBI officials said no terrorist suspects were arrested as a result of the alert.
Newsweek, January 12, 2004: Six Air France flights bound for Los Angeles over Christmas were canceled. Other international flights were shadowed by F-16 fighters….
It turned out to be a false alarm. Believing they might have disrupted a terrorist plot, the United States asked French authorities to track down several passengers on an Air France flight whose names closely matched the list. But none had any evident connection to terrorism. One was a 6-year-old child. The FBI's screening of Vegas hotel visitors and questioning of Arab immigrants were equally fruitless. As one counterterrorism official put it, the efforts produced "zilch."
ALERT NO. 6: AUGUST 1-???, 2004. a. k. a. “The What's Old is New Again Threat.”
Developing …
Garance Franke-Ruta is a Prospect senior editor.
