We'll be talking more about the debt deal later, but something else in the meantime: Ezra Klein points out that a year and a half from now, there will be a looming deadline in which Democrats, if you can believe it, will actually hold the upper hand:
But Democrats will have their turn. On Dec. 31, 2012, three weeks before the end of President Barack Obama's current term in office, the Bush tax cuts expire. Income tax rates will return to their Clinton-era levels. That amounts to a $3.6 trillion tax increase over 10 years, three or four times the $800 billion to $1.2 trillion in revenue increases that Obama and Speaker John Boehner were kicking around. And all Democrats need to do to secure that deal is...nothing.
This scenario is the inverse of the current debt-ceiling debate, in which inaction will lead to an outcome -- a government default -- that Democrats can't stomach and Republicans think they can. There is only one thing that could stand in the way of Democrats passing significant new revenues on the last day of 2012: the Obama administration.
Ezra argues that the Obama administration is in no hurry to have a debate over how much to raise taxes. But there's something important to consider: Since doing nothing means the tax cuts expire, the administration's cooperation isn't necessary. In fact, just 41 Democratic senators would be enough to ensure the expiration of the tax cuts -- or at the very least, demand a whole host of progressive policies in order to extend them.
Since you only need 41 senators to maintain a filibuster, the more progressive ones -- no need to get the cooperation of the likes of Ben Nelson or Mary Landreiu or Joe Lieberman -- could use their veto power to set the agenda, just as Tea Party members in the House have over the debt-ceiling debate. They could lay down a marker, and a wish list. Imagine that: a progressive faction within the Democratic Party, manipulating the process to get policy concessions! We know that there is one thing Republicans care about above all else -- above cutting government, above defense spending -- and that's maintaining low taxes on the wealthy. So there's a lot that the progressives could get in return for an extension.
President Obama would be horrified, of course. But if the progressive senators stood strong, they could actually win, whether he liked it or not.
