To say another word on immigration, I also think there's a surprisingly high chance that it may not play a major role in 2008. We all know that it's something the base forced on the candidates, rather than something the GOP's political geniuses thought would be a good idea. Currently, the Republicans are running in a primary composed entirely of base voters thrilled by the single-issue candidacy of Tom Tancredo. But Tom Tancredo is dropping out. Once there's a Republican nominee, he will not contending with other Republican candidates trying to cynically out-xenophobe him in order to get a few more crazy Iowans in their corner of the caucus room. And he may find himself convinced by elite Republican strategists warning against destroying the party's standing with Hispanics and pointing to the lackluster electoral returns immigration-phobia demonstrated in the 2006 and 2007 election. There's no guarantee of this, of course, but I could easily see the eventual nominee focusing elsewhere, and, in any case, it's hard to imagine hell be as anti-immigrant in the general as in the primary. That still leaves plenty of room for 527s and surrogates and independent expenditure groups to exploit the issue, but they won't be nearly as effective in the candidate isn't joining in the chorus.
