I don't want to say too much on the legislative wrangling over the immigration bill, as I'll have a piece on it coming out tomorrow. For now, though, I wouldn't get too exercised over the amendments offered in the Senate. We're in the phase of the bill where bits are getting attached in no small part to allow their authors to campaign based on getting those bits attached. This isn't the final bill.
What happens next is that the bill is likely to pass the Senate, then move to the House. The House is going to create something significantly more supportable -- I'll have more on this tomorrow -- and then the two versions will go to conference, where the Democratic leadership can essentially create the bill they want. The resulting legislation will then go back to the Senate and the House for a final vote with no amendments allowed, but a filibuster still possible.
So the question is how much leeway there is to better the bill without getting filibustered in the Senate. What we simply don't know is how honest the various Senators are being. You may have a number of Republicans making noise and stamping their feet to show their displeasure while the cameras are on, but they know something must be done, will take White House pressure seriously, and won't obstruct the final legislation -- they'll just vote against. And since post-conference votes tend to confuse the public, they don't get as much coverage as initial votes, which frees politicians to vote a bit closer to their conscience and their party's pressure. Or it could go the opposite way, and the bill could die a rapid death. We'll see.
