Ambassador Karl Eikenberry's cables highlight a paradox that keeps coming up in my conversations with policy analysts and State Department officials: The more U.S. officials call Afghanistan a necessary war, the less leverage they have over Karzai, who knows that the Obama administration will be hard pressed to withdraw troops from a war they've framed as essential for national security. But without the ability to force the Karzai regime to deal with issues of corruption and incompetence, U.S. efforts in Afghanistan are going to be very hard-pressed to succeed. If it assumed in Kabul -- as it was in Washington -- that more troops are a fait accompli, than there is no incentive at all for Karzai to change his behavior. It's a near-perfect illustration of making choices about resources that seem unconnected with your broader strategy. Hence Eikenberry's memo urging the president not to send more troops until Karzai cleans up his act. It illustrates also the need for more clarity in how the president frames the conflict: Without a clear end-state, as Adam observes, it's nearly impossible to maintain any kind of flexibility in how policymakers approach the conflict. Given the difficulties in even deploying more troops to Afghanistan -- the necessary brigades simply aren't available -- there is no real need to make the decision now. Tell Karzai that we're getting the troops ready, and perhaps they'll be sent if he can demonstrate his ability to improve his government's legitimacy and solidify his coalition with a broader cabinet. I'm about to hear a Q&A with Gen. David Petraeus, whose command now encompasses the conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan. I look forward to hearing what he has to say about this topic. Update: Petraeus said nothing, unsurprisingly, about on-going discussions, although interviewer Michael O'Hanlon didn't even bother to raise the question (or really ask any tough questions at all -- afterwards he told me he is simply a "conversation facilitator" but the conversation he facilitated was light on substance and bathed in the weakest of sauces.) But Helene Cooper has a smart article on the topic in the Times today.
-- TIm Fernholz
