Today's new Today's new Washington Post/ABC poll suggests the general election will be decided by independent voters, who are currently evenly split between Barack Obama and John McCain. Interestingly, while 9 out of 10 Republicans are lined up behind McCain, 8 out of 10 Democrats are ready to declare their support for Obama. Those numbers strike me as favorable for Obama, who, after all, had a primary opponent 10 days ago, while McCain has been the presumptive nominee for months. But back to those evenly split swing voters. NARAL Pro-Choice America is planning a big campaign to reach out to pro-choice Independent women and pro-choice Republican women in October. Polling released by NARAL yesterday found that Obama gains 13 points among pro-choice Independent women and nine points among pro-choice Republican women when they hear about McCain’s opposition to Roe, comprehensive sex-ed, and access to contraception. This could help Obama gain 1.6 points total points against McCain. Still, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that although swing voters make up their minds late in the election cycle, issues aren't usually the deciding factor. See Karen Tumulty at Swampland for more. She suggests Obama was burnt in New Hampshire by Independents' predilection for breaking late for an underdog -- not Hillary Clinton, but McCain, who they decided to support in the GOP primary because they sensed Obama's momentum from the Iowa caucuses couldn't be stopped. --Dana Goldstein
