I'm going to respond to Ezra's call for calm in the previous post with a call for insane poll hysteria! Or at least, I think the early polling is well worth watching, and I'll tell you why.
Ezra and Nicholas have pointed to the 2004 Democratic primary polls to suggest that early polling doesn't tell us much. I'll agree that it doesn't tell us much in cases where a gigantic issue that defines American politics for the next several years suddenly emerges after the poll is taken. I refer to the Iraq War, which gave all the candidates brand new identities -- electable war hero Kerry, antiwar hero Dean, Bush-appeasing Gephardt, and GOP-lite Joementum. If that happens, the polls are unreliable. But sometimes it doesn't and the polls are right. The January 1999 polling had both of the eventual nominees with double-digit leads over their closest competitors, with Bush at 39% and Gore at 44%. The polling wasn't perfect -- Elizabeth Dole was second to Bush -- but it was accurate enough to impress me.
