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At Le Monde, Eric Paul Meyer lays out some of the difficulties that continue to face the government of Sri Lanka in its fight with the Tamil Tigers. The Sri Lankan government has recently won a series of spectacular victories against the Tigers, and has forced the hybrid guerrilla organization into a small northern pocket:
If the Colombo government defeats the LTTE [Tamil Tigers], it will then have to win the peace, which will not be an easy task. Most of the independent Tamil representatives were eliminated by the Tigers, with the exception of Veerasingham Anandasangaree, president of the Tamil United Liberation Front and winner of the 2006 Unesco prize for the promotion of tolerance and non-violence. Figures like [Tamil defector] Karuna are discredited in the eyes of many Tamils because of their collaboration with government forces, while the Tamil National Alliance MPs have aligned themselves too closely to LTTE positions in the past to be seen now as independent.A complete victory by the government would risk reinforcing the arrogance of the ultra-nationalist Sinhalese, who would take advantage of the situation to refuse any political concessions. It is by no means certain that president Rajapaksa’s vague promises to the Tamils would withstand pressure from the ultranationalists. The government has tolerated, even encouraged, grave human rights abuses by armed groups, reminiscent of the worst moments of the 1983-94 period. For example, at the beginning of January this year, shortly after the army’s first victories, the offices of the main private television channel, Sirasa TV, were ransacked. A journalist, Lasantha Wickramatunga, who had accused the Rajapaksa brothers of corruption and abuse of power, was killed in broad daylight.The biggest problem is a lack of clarity regarding the "center of gravity" of the insurgency. Although the Sri Lankan military has won victories, it's unclear whether it can completely destroy the remaining guerrilla forces, which may disperse amongst the Tamil population even if the last pocket is captured. The ability of the central government to respond to the legitimate grievances of the Tamil population is also in question, as the above discussion makes clear. Finally, much of the support that the Tamil Tigers receive comes from the Tamil diaspora, which is largely beyond the reach of the Sri Lankan government. In short, Sri Lanka may be nearing the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end. That said, the successes of the Sri Lankan military have considerably exceeded expectations; the Tigers were once one of the most capable and feared hybrid organizations in the world.--Robert Farley
